GUEST POST: Political science students predict close presidential election
The following is survey results of a mock presidential election conducted by UHCL political science majors Meggan Brown, Kristyn Weaver, Elizabeth Solis and Jonathan Edjeren.
The 2012 presidential election promises to be a close race. On September 26, 2012, the Political Science Student Organization (PSSO) held a mock presidential election. A convenient sample of 179 participants of UHCL faculty, staff, and students favored the incumbent, President Barack Obama. A survey administered asked, “If the 2012 presidential election were being held today, whom would you vote for?” In the survey, 50% of participants cast a vote for Obama-Biden compared to only 33% for the Romney-Ryan ticket. Third party candidates, Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party (7%) and Jill Stein of the Green Party (4%), garnered 11% of the total vote. Four percent were undecided. Two percent wrote in Ron Paul. In the same week, the Rasmussen Reports, a national bipartisan polling outlet, showed President Obama with a slight lead (47%) over the Republican nominee, Mitt Romney (46%). Other polls such as Gallup showed a larger gap, Obama (50%) over Romney (44%).
According to one anonymous student, “Presidential Obama needs time to fix the problems in this country.” A fellow student argued, “He has had four years to turn the country around and has failed miserably,” countering this position.
The following next week, October 3, PSSO administered another survey asking the same UHCL population, “Are we better off today than we were four years ago?” The majority of participants (58%) agreed, “Yes.” The remaining participants, 42%, felt the country was not better off. As one student explained, “We are better off. The unemployment rate is gradually declining.” As of October 5, the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the U.S. unemployment rate dipped to 7.8%, its lowest level since President Obama took office.
A follow-up question was asked, “In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing the American people?” Of the 171 participants, 55% indicated the Economy, followed by Health-Care (15%), Abortion (5%), and Gay Marriage (3%). Twenty-two percent responded, “Other.” The economy was also a central issue in the 2008 presidential election with Obama pledging to “create or save” 3 million jobs. In the current election, Romney’s campaign is vowing to create 12 million jobs. The addition of these jobs in a four-year span would be the strongest period of employment growth in recent history.
The results of both on-campus surveys exhibit that the majority of UHCL voters will reelect President Obama. Prior to these surveys Obama had a strong showing in the media and national polling outlets. However, after his lack-luster performance in the first presidential debate, Romney’s poll numbers bounced. The Rasmussen Reports, in additional to other national polls and surveys, are showing that Romney is attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, compared to 47% for Obama. Gallup reports Obama (49%) still has more vote support than Romney (46%). Just weeks ago, some political pundits were theorizing that this is Obama’s election to loose. The upcoming presidential debates on October 16 and 22 could prove to be a “game changer” in deciding the election on November 6.
